BTC analysis: what can invalidate the short-term bear scenario for bitcoin?

The price of Bitcoin is showing strong momentum as it recovers above $33,000 after a relatively large correction on January 12.

The overall market sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive. But there is an important invalidation point for the bearish scenario for BTC,
Bitcoin Revolution software needs to recapture $36,000.

If BTC is to reach an all-time high in the foreseeable future, it is critical that BTC stays above $36,000.

Traders have stressed that they would rather buy much lower or above $36,000 when analyzing the current market landscape.

Scott Melker, a crypto trader, explains:

„If the price goes back down, this is what I will be watching for. Still on course, but would rather see it reverse the EQ of this channel and continue up without the dip.“

However, if bitcoin price rejects the $35,000 to $36,000 resistance area, then we could see another major pullback.
The bitcoin price chart with a possible scenario. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com, Scott Melker

In the short term, there are two key levels for bitcoin: $33,000 and $36,000. A move above $36,000 would likely lead to a retest of the record high.

Staying above $33,000 would mean it has solidified as a macro support area, likely leading to another BTC rally.

Between $30,000 and $33,000 are wal cluster support areas, making them strong support levels.

Whale clusters form when whales buy bitcoin and do not move it. This behavior signals that whales are accumulating BTC. Therefore, when BTC falls to the price level at which they bought, whales are more likely to bid again and expand their positions by buying more Bitcoin.

It is similar to MicroStrategy’s recent $10 million bitcoin buy order from a few hours ago. Whales with a long-term strategy in mind will likely continue to add to their position, with a two- to three-year outlook on the market.

Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s CEO, commented:

„MicroStrategy has purchased approximately 314 Bitcoins for $10.0 million in cash, at an average price of approximately $31,808 per Bitcoin, in accordance with Treasury Reserve Policy. We now hold approximately 70,784 Bitcoins.“

In addition, Grayscale continues to purchase a larger number of Bitcoin on a weekly basis, which remains an important catalyst for Bitcoin for the foreseeable future.

What’s next.

Some traders believe that Bitcoin and Ethereum could reach a new all-time high, only to experience a major correction.

Nik Yaremchuk, a crypto trader and on-chain analyst, believes ETH could potentially reach $1,600 and then correct. He writes:

„Very often $ETH predicts market moves faster than the $BTC chart shows. Right now it looks like we will reach $46k and $1.6k, after that I expect a big drop. I don’t want to make long-term predictions, it looks like that now.“

That could mean Bitcoin could see a deeper correction at around $46,000, slightly above the current all-time high at $42,000.